Voter turnout in Nebraska predicted to be 58% for general election

LINCOLN, Neb. — Statewide, a turnout of 58% of the state’s registered voters is projected for the general election.

The Nebraska Examiner said that would match the turnout for the last nonpresidential general election in the state in 2018, but it would be higher than similar, gubernatorial general elections in 2014, 2010 and 2006, according to records of the Nebraska Secretary of State’s Office.

The turnout prediction issued Wednesday by the Secretary of State’s Office was the first since 2018. Predictions were not made in 2020 and again for this year’s spring primary due to the uncertainty in voting patterns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, said higher voter turnout is usually generated by hotly contested races and big differences in the candidates.

That is the case, he said, in the 2nd Congressional District race in the Omaha area between incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican, and his Democratic challenger, State Sen. Tony Vargas.

It’s also true, to a lesser extent, Adkins said, in the 1st Congressional District. That’s where U.S. Rep. Mike Flood of Norfolk, who won a special election in June to replace Jeff Fortenberry, who resigned, is being challenged by Democratic State Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks of Lincoln.

The political scientist said that mail-in voting via early ballots is also getting easier, which could contribute to higher turnouts. Early voting has been on the rise in recent elections.

A large number of tightly contested seats for the Nebraska Legislature are also on the ballot, as well as ballot initiatives to require identification to be presented at polling places and to increase the state’s minimum wage.

In past, nonpresidential elections featuring a gubernatorial races, the turnout was:

• 58% in 2018.
• 48% in 2014.
• 44% in 2010.
• 54% in 2006.

Voter turnout predictions in selected Nebraska counties this year are 57% in Douglas County, 55% in Lancaster County and 53% in Sarpy County.

Polls open 8-8 on Tuesday

Polls will be open from 8 a.m. CST to 8 p.m. for the statewide gubernatorial general election Tuesday.

Douglas County Election Commissioner Brian Kruse issued a statement Wednesday urging voters to make their views, and votes, count.

“Voters should be assured that elections in Douglas County and across Nebraska are safe and secure,” Kruse added.