Democratic voter registrations in Nebraska have been steadily declining all year, contradicting the expectation that the party’s numbers would bounce back following a surge of Republican registrations ahead of the May primary election.
Though Nebraska Democratic Party Chairwoman Jane Kleeb said she doesn’t expect the trend to change in the next month before the midterm elections, she was confident that Democrats were in a good place.
“We are headed to good victories in November,” Kleeb said.
According to the latest data from the Nebraska Secretary of State’s Office, Democrats have lost more than 9,500 voters since January, while Republicans have gained nearly 11,800 voters in the same period. Much of that shift happened ahead of the primary, with about 6,400 voters registering as Republicans, and Democratic voter registrations dropping by about 3,800.
At the time, this was largely attributed to Democratic voters switching their registration in order to vote in the Republican primary, which included a high-profile gubernatorial contest. Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood, who at the time headed the Lancaster County GOP, said some voters there confirmed this trend to him.
Kleeb described the losses as “temporary” back in May, and said the party had a plan to get the same voters to switch back following the primary. But that hasn’t been the case, according to state data.
Nebraska Democrats have continued to see modest losses of a few hundred voters each month since May, save for August, which saw a minor gain of 74 voters. Meanwhile, Republicans have gained between 74 and 1,500 new voters each month.
Randall Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, said the continued trend for both parties was unexpected, but could be attributed to a range of reasons. He said it could simply be due to the Nebraska GOP doing a better job at encouraging voter registration.
Underwood echoed this theory, saying the GOP’s gains were connected to an “active effort” by state party officials to encourage Republican registrations.
“I think those efforts are paying off,” Underwood said.
Among other political affiliations, nonpartisan voters gained back about 500 voters since May following a loss of about 2,800 voters recorded in the first half of the year. Much like with the Democrats, there were anecdotal accounts of nonpartisan voters registering as Republicans to vote in the gubernatorial primary. Libertarians gained 78 voters this year, while Legal Marijuana NOW gained 2,166 voters.
Kevin Smith, chair of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln political science department, said many of the voters who switched their party registrations likely haven’t switched back because they have no incentive to do so — an observation that Adkins also made. Unlike the GOP primary, where only registered Republicans could participate, party registration doesn’t dictate the races that people can vote in during general elections.
Early voting has already begun in some counties, but Smith said he doesn’t expect that to influence registration statistics. He said he doesn’t anticipate any major changes in party registrations until Nebraska’s next primary election season.
Instead, Smith — along with Kleeb and Underwood — predicted that some national hot topics will be more influential in the outcome of the midterms. One of the top issues at play is abortion rights, following the U.S. Supreme Court decision in June to overturn the landmark abortion ruling Roe v. Wade.
While Adkins said it’s too soon to say how the decision will impact the midterms, Smith argued the public backlash gives an advantage to Democratic candidates.
Democrats can capitalize on the outrage, while many Republican candidates have to fight against it and get specific on what abortion restrictions they would support, Smith said.
Kleeb said many GOP women voters, even those who identify as “pro-life,” have expressed support for Democratic candidates since the Supreme Court decision. Before the ruling, Kleeb said Democrats were nervous about maintaining 17 seats in the Nebraska Legislature. Now they “see a path to 20.”
Underwood alleged that Democrats have lied about Republicans’ beliefs on abortion rights. He said the Nebraska GOP’s platform on abortions is one that resonates with most voters.
According to the party’s platform, the Nebraska GOP supports amending the U.S. Constitution to ban abortions “except those genuinely needed to save the life of the mother.” It does not mention exceptions for cases of rape or incest.
Underwood said he expects voters will also be swayed in favor of Republican candidates because of inflation and a recent uptick in some violent crimes in Lincoln and other areas of the state (long-term data for Lincoln shows that violent crimes are generally down). Adkins also said national economic issues provide an advantage to GOP candidates, and could have contributed to the rising Republican voter registration in Nebraska.
Smith acknowledged an air of “uncertainty” in this year’s election — the first since redistricting after the 2020 Census. He said the aftermath may see significant changes in some elected offices, up to potentially changing which party holds the power in Congress.
“A lot could change, or a lot could stay the same,” Smith said.
Nebraskans have until Oct. 21 to register to vote by mail or online. Voters can continue to register in person at their local election offices until Oct. 28.
Voters fill out their ballots at Fontenelle Forest during Nebraska’s primary election in May. The primary saw an increase in registered Republicans and a dip in registered Democrats compared with figures from January. The trend has continued through 2022.